Adipic acid 2023

Adipic Acid 2023 Data Review

Description:

In order to objectively reflect the authenticity of the data, the data or cost calculation methods in this article are from third parties, and there may be discrepancies. Please understand.

Adipic Acid 2023 Data Review:

In 2023, the overall adipic acid is still on a downward trend. See the trends of adipic acid, pure benzene, and styrene as follows:

Looking back at the beginning of 2023, the expected range for adipic acid in 2023 is relatively high,

Affected by the overall increase in production capacity and the lower-than-expected downstream, the overall supply and demand pattern of adipic acid has not been effectively improved, and the price has gradually declined, even touching the price of around 8,500 yuan/ton twice in the second half of the year.

The disparity in the spot price of pure benzene adipate can also intuitively reflect the severe pressure that adipate manufacturers are currently facing on the cost side,

The trend of the spot price difference between the two is prominent. In the fourth quarter of this year, due to Hengli's new production capacity and the impact on cost-side advantages, the spot price gap of acid benzene once fell back to within 1,000 yuan/ton.

The difference between the month-end billing standard of adipic acid manufacturers and the average listing price of pure benzene within the month is as follows:

Although the data is not as "tragic" as the cash market, the trend in the second half of the year is obvious. Under the pressure on the cost side, the contradiction between supply and demand is again prominent. High settlement becomes the main tone in 2023. See the adipic acid settlement standard and the adipic acid market. The average spot price comparison is as follows:

The monthly billing standard of adipic acid manufacturers and the market average price difference are as follows:

See the difference between the average listing price of Sinopec Group pure benzene during the month-end invoicing standard and the cycle of adipic acid manufacturers, which can also intuitively reflect the overall profit and loss of adipic acid manufacturers in 2023:

With reference to the monthly invoicing standard for adipic acid, the average listing price of Sinopec Group pure benzene, and the calculation formula provided by a third party, the profitability of adipic acid manufacturers for the whole year of 23 years is estimated as follows:

Excluding factors affecting output fluctuations due to start and stop, theoretically, the profit of adipic acid manufacturers per ton of adipic acid in 2023 is about 435.44 yuan/ton.

The above chart and theoretical values illustrate the decline in the profitability of adipic acid manufacturers after June 2023. The main reason is still the release of new domestic production capacity, and the phased supply and demand balance is broken again, until adipic acid manufacturers once again lose money in the second half of the year.

Comparison of adipic acid data in recent years:

Comparison of the market price trends of adipic acid in the past three years is as follows:

Compared with the past three years, the trend of the spot price difference between adipic acid and pure benzene is as follows:

In the past three years, due to various factors in the adipic acid market, the market price amplitude has become smaller and smaller, and the spot price difference between adipic acid and pure benzene has been continuously refreshing the lower limit. Adipic acid manufacturers are facing serious cost-side pressure and the challenge of supply and demand contradictions.

The annual output of adipic acid in the past 5 years is as follows:

The monthly output of adipic acid in the past 5 years is as follows:

Although the epidemic has been exclusive for 3 years in the past 5 years, the increase in domestic adipic acid production and new devices has not decreased, especially in the second half of 23 years as an example. Although the second half of 23 years, Haili stopped production and Taihua reduced load, but the new Huafeng Phase 6 plant in the middle of the year and the new constant force device at the end of the year quickly made up for the lack of production capacity. The increase in adipic acid production in the second half of 2023 is particularly prominent.

Pure benzene:

As the main raw material of adipic acid, pure benzene has the most direct impact on the market price trend of adipic acid. As can be seen by referring to the previous trend chart, for many products similar to the slightly unbalanced supply and demand of adipic acid, a similar situation with direct cost impact will occur in 2023.

The spot and listed price trends of pure benzene are as follows:

The trend of pure benzene CFR Chinese and international crude oil prices is as follows:

The trend of pure benzene dollar price converted into RMB and pure benzene spot price is as follows:

The market price trend of pure benzene in major global markets is as follows:

The trend of the linear relationship between pure benzene spot and crude oil is as follows:

Based on the above data information, the most direct influencing factor for the pure benzene market is still the trend of international oil prices. In the epidemic era after 2023, the geopolitical influencing factors are gradually increasing. The East-Wudong problem is still in full swing. The Middle East-Palestine-Israel conflict has resurfaced. After the end of the 1980s